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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
56%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Skem · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Timado · 12 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 11 games
73%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 11 games
36%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 10 games
60%
Lich
Lichsignature
Skem · 10 games
70%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 15 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 11 games
64%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 11 games
82%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 11 games
36%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Bignum · 10 games
60%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
549 picks · 781 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
448 picks · 328 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
438 picks · 711 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
408 picks · 724 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
396 picks · 897 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
395 picks · 1059 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
382 picks · 528 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total76% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:4
Shopify Rebellion 62%Wildcard Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 19:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTimado
43% · 156 games51% · 159 games
GyrocopterYamSun
Gyrocopter
Lycan
LycanPakazs
54% · 64 games52% · 159 games
BeastmasterRCY
Beastmaster
Slardar
SlardarYopaj
54% · 75 games57% · 79 games
BrewmasterFayde
Brewmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireHellscream
40% · 176 games55% · 8 games
RingmasterBignum
Ringmaster
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkem
50% · 84 games50% · 150 games
TuskSpeeed
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct21:17
Shopify Rebellion 66%Wildcard Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
56% · 222 games36% · 216 games
TerrorbladeYamSun
Terrorblade
Magnus
MagnusPakazs
55% · 199 games53% · 244 games
Storm SpiritRCY
Storm Spirit
Tiny
TinyYopaj
49% · 351 game46% · 193 games
DawnbreakerFayde
Dawnbreaker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightHellscream
54% · 65 games50% · 101 game
Bounty HunterBignum
Bounty Hunter
Warlock
WarlockSkem
52% · 104 games49% · 187 games
Crystal MaidenSpeeed
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 76%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2