DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AllStarsloss 0:2series probability
7%93%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AllStars
Abaddonoften banned
Sacred · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Jakiro
Accel · 2 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Sacred · 2 games
Sven
bsK7- · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Accel · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Accel · 1 game
Death Prophet
Sacred · 1 game
Heroic
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 27 games
Muerta
Scofield · 27 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 24 games
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 22 games
Lion
Scofield · 20 games
Magnussignature
Wisper · 20 games
Beastmastersignature
Davai · 16 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
548 picks · 778 bans
Muerta
446 picks · 328 bans
Phoenix
438 picks · 711 bans
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
Phantom Assassin
408 picks · 719 bans
Bristleback
396 picks · 897 bans
Magnus
393 picks · 1056 bans
Pangolier
382 picks · 526 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:31
AllStars 24%Heroic 76%
The model gave 76% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 36:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinybsK7-
Templar AssassinYuma
MarsSacred
Sand King4nalog
Ancient ApparitionAccel
TerrorbladeWisper
48% · 156 games
HoodwinkMatthew
36% · 42 games
SilencerKJ
Game 2prediction correct21:33
AllStars 23%Heroic 77%
The model gave 77% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 31:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladebsK7-
SvenYuma
BeastmasterSacred
Kunkka4nalog
TuskAccel
MagnusWisper
55% · 77 games
Night StalkerMatthew
57% · 77 games
WarlockKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 93%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2