DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Capy Barasloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 39 games
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 19 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 19 games
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 18 games
Mirana
tOfu · 17 games
Clockwerk
Seleri · 16 games
Capy Baras
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 2 games
Ringmaster
Lelis · 2 games
Windranger
Lelis · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Centaur Warrunner
Infernal · 1 game
Dazzleoften banned
Fly · 1 game
Jakiro
Fly · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
548 picks · 776 bans
Muerta
445 picks · 328 bans
Phoenix
438 picks · 711 bans
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
Phantom Assassin
407 picks · 718 bans
Bristleback
396 picks · 897 bans
Magnus
393 picks · 1055 bans
Pangolier
382 picks · 526 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% Capy Baras
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:16
Gaimin Gladiators 70%Capy Baras 30%
The model gave 70% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 31:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinWatson
Chaos KnightKiritych
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Queen of PainCopy
HuskarQuinn
TidehunterInfernal
MuertatOfu
WindrangerLelis
SilencerMalady
RingmasterFly
Game 2prediction correct31:25
Gaimin Gladiators 68%Capy Baras 32%
The model gave 68% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 41:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeWatson
BrewmasterInfernal
DoomAce
HuskarCopy
Storm SpiritQuinn
SlarkKiritych
Keeper of the LighttOfu
RingmasterLelis
SilencerMalady
JakiroFly
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 83%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2