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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:1
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Red Submarineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 27 games
70%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 27 games
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 24 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 20 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Davai · 16 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
75%

Red Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
lffy · 2 games
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Argius · 2 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 1 game
0%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Argius · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
544 picks · 766 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
442 picks · 328 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
435 picks · 709 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
402 picks · 707 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
394 picks · 894 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
390 picks · 1049 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
378 picks · 520 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:18
Heroic 82%Red Submarine 18%
The model gave 82% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 35:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYuma
55% · 344 games40% · 136 games
TerrorbladeArgius
Terrorblade
Sand King
Sand King4nalog
59% · 199 games44% · 303 games
PangolierS1RENM
Pangolier
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWisper
46% · 180 games41% · 274 games
BeastmasterHermit
Beastmaster
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKJ
63% · 56 games43% · 67 games
WarlockJimmyCoff666
Warlock
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMatthew
57% · 88 games54% · 87 games
Night Stalkerlffy
Night Stalker
Game 2prediction missed14:23
Heroic 81%Red Submarine 19%
The model gave 81% on Heroic — the game was taken by Red Submarine in 31:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invoker4nalog
50% · 150 games49% · 299 games
Dragon KnightArgius
Dragon Knight
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYuma
45% · 113 games47% · 87 games
KunkkaS1RENM
Kunkka
Sand King
Sand KingWisper
53% · 172 games50% · 60 games
LycanHermit
Lycan
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKJ
51% · 158 games54% · 233 games
Hoodwinklffy
Hoodwink
Windranger
WindrangerMatthew
48% · 168 games50% · 82 games
WarlockJimmyCoff666
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct28:5
Heroic 81%Red Submarine 19%
The model gave 81% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 24:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYuma
49% · 127 games49% · 340 games
MorphlingArgius
Morphling
Bristleback
BristlebackWisper
51% · 207 games48% · 75 games
LycanHermit
Lycan
Sand King
Sand King4nalog
56% · 212 games52% · 262 games
Monkey KingS1RENM
Monkey King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMatthew
49% · 273 games46% · 260 games
Snapfirelffy
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixKJ
51% · 371 game49% · 253 games
JakiroJimmyCoff666
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 95%
Series resultHeroic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3