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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 16 games
31%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
50%

HULIGANI

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RESPECT · 20 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 19 games
37%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 18 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 15 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Panto · 13 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mirage · 13 games
46%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mirage · 12 games
33%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
544 picks · 766 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
442 picks · 328 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
435 picks · 709 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
402 picks · 707 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
394 picks · 894 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
390 picks · 1049 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
378 picks · 520 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total57% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:37
1w Team 45%HULIGANI 55%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 29:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerMunkushi~
50% · 91 game49% · 155 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterChira JUNIOR
45% · 211 games61% · 31 game
Kunkkaerase
Kunkka
Abaddon
AbaddonSSS
42% · 66 games55% · 104 games
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
40% · 34 games57% · 156 games
JakiroRESPECT
Jakiro
Silencer
SilencerHduo
42% · 57 games66% · 13 games
Ringmastermrls
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed34:22
1w Team 48%HULIGANI 52%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by 1w Team in 53:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerMunkushi~
57% · 85 games50% · 178 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSSS
44% · 174 games56% · 67 games
Kunkkaerase
Kunkka
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
50% · 230 games49% · 191 game
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
Centaur Warrunner
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterswedenstrong
56% · 47 games46% · 117 games
WarlockRESPECT
Warlock
Silencer
SilencerHduo
40% · 33 games62% · 16 games
Ringmastermrls
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction missed43:15
1w Team 45%HULIGANI 55%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by 1w Team in 45:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusMunkushi~
51% · 159 games47% · 233 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSSS
49% · 277 games54% · 324 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
43% · 333 games56% · 324 games
BristlebackMalik
Bristleback
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionHduo
55% · 42 games51% · 26 games
RingmasterRESPECT
Ringmaster
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
48% · 253 games48% · 157 games
Windrangermrls
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 57%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3