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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 15 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
QBFY · 13 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 12 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Kaori · 11 games
55%

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 13 games
46%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 13 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 13 games
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Jabz · 13 games
62%
Muerta
Muerta
Q · 12 games
33%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 11 games
27%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
544 picks · 766 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
442 picks · 328 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
435 picks · 709 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
402 picks · 707 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
394 picks · 894 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
390 picks · 1049 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
378 picks · 520 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:42
Natus Vincere 42%Aurora Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 41:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
39% · 200 games55% · 209 games
DoomNightfall
Doom
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSancity
48% · 115 games51% · 276 games
Tinykiyotaka
Tiny
Sand King
Sand KingBOOM
55% · 189 games58% · 153 games
Dark SeerTORONTOTOKYO
Dark Seer
Windranger
WindrangerAri
49% · 164 games51% · 41 game
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Ancient Apparition
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
44% · 210 games50% · 199 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed51:44
Natus Vincere 42%Aurora Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 58:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYuragi
39% · 111 games55% · 174 games
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
Shadow Fiend
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSancity
46% · 251 game61% · 262 games
DoomNightfall
Doom
Mars
MarsBOOM
43% · 141 game61% · 171 game
EnigmaTORONTOTOKYO
Enigma
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
43% · 262 games49% · 275 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Rubick
RubickAri
47% · 217 games55% · 100 games
Bounty HunterMira
Bounty Hunter
Game 3prediction missed26:3
Natus Vincere 45%Aurora Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 24:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYuragi
58% · 199 games45% · 131 game
SvenNightfall
Sven
Kunkka
KunkkaSancity
60% · 34 games42% · 276 games
Beastmasterkiyotaka
Beastmaster
Magnus
MagnusBOOM
57% · 129 games50% · 31 game
DazzleTORONTOTOKYO
Dazzle
Warlock
WarlockKaori
51% · 65 games49% · 107 games
Night StalkerMira
Night Stalker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAri
49% · 137 games45% · 19 games
RingmasterPanto
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 63%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3