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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AVULUSwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 35 games
37%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 31 game
52%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 24 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 23 games
30%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 23 games
48%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 37 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 36 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 35 games
49%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 31 game
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 28 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 25 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 24 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Stormstormer · 24 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
543 picks · 765 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
441 picks · 327 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
435 picks · 709 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
402 picks · 705 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
394 picks · 892 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
390 picks · 1047 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
377 picks · 519 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 41%
Hero pool strength55% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:32
Zero Tenacity 39%AVULUS 61%
The model gave 61% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 1:00:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerRetsu
50% · 113 games52% · 105 games
UrsaSmiling Knight
Ursa
Sniper
SniperStojkov
48% · 118 games63% · 23 games
TinkerSoNNeikO
Tinker
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNefrit
50% · 194 games43% · 232 games
Dragon KnightMo13ei
Dragon Knight
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerPablo
55% · 39 games55% · 82 games
TidehunterXibbe
Tidehunter
Warlock
WarlockLeBronDota
47% · 111 games48% · 133 games
MuertadEsire
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct11:24
Zero Tenacity 34%AVULUS 66%
The model gave 66% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 32:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeRetsu
44% · 133 games43% · 52 games
Drow RangerSmiling Knight
Drow Ranger
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
48% · 277 games54% · 556 games
TinyMo13ei
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierStojkov
40% · 340 games60% · 189 games
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Rubick
RubickPablo
47% · 181 game58% · 160 games
ChenSoNNeikO
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroLeBronDota
46% · 155 games56% · 129 games
Night StalkerdEsire
Night Stalker
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 73%
Series resultAVULUS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2