DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZloss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The MongolZ
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 12 games
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 10 games
Pucksignature
Wonder'boy · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
Hishge · 9 games
Doomoften banned
JG · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 9 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JG · 8 games
BOOM Esports
Earthshakeroften banned
Mac · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
Jaunuel · 23 games
Lionsignature
Tims · 23 games
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 20 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Fbz · 18 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
539 picks · 763 bans
Muerta
439 picks · 326 bans
Phoenix
435 picks · 709 bans
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
Phantom Assassin
401 picks · 700 bans
Bristleback
393 picks · 889 bans
Magnus
390 picks · 1045 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 51%
Hero pool strength56% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total83% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:19
The MongolZ 31%BOOM Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerJG
BristlebackJaCkky
Storm SpiritBob
Dragon KnightArmel
Night StalkerDJ
BeastmasterJabz
50% · 16 games
TinkerJaunuel
51% · 168 games
MuertaTims
Game 2prediction correct27:29
The MongolZ 32%BOOM Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 54:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterJG
PuckArmel
EarthshakerBob
Phantom AssassinJaCkky
TuskDJ
Dark SeerJabz
56% · 101 game
ChenJaunuel
49% · 237 games
TinyTims
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 83%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2