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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAwin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aim Possibleloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 12 games
83%
Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
55%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
45%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
VaniLLl · 10 games
70%
Lich
Lich
VaniLLl · 10 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Infernal · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
young G · 10 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 9 games
78%

Aim Possible

Jakiro
Jakiro
Aidar · 2 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 2 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 1 game
0%
Warlock
Warlock
Aidar · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
538 picks · 757 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
439 picks · 323 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
435 picks · 709 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 404 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
399 picks · 695 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
392 picks · 883 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
389 picks · 1043 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 514 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 40%
Hero pool strength59% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:35
ASAKURA 62%Aim Possible 38%
The model gave 62% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Aim Possible in 32:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey King7jesu
57% · 34 games49% · 45 games
Slarkrubikon155
Slark
Pangolier
PangolierSerenada
49% · 53 games50% · 117 games
WarlockAidar
Warlock
Tidehunter
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
55% · 36 games
Weaver
Weaverslimeyao
44% · 31 game
Silencer
SilencerVaniLLl
42% · 8 games
Game 2prediction correct47:36
ASAKURA 61%Aim Possible 39%
The model gave 61% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 50:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusa7jesu
44% · 5 games47% · 111 games
Phantom Assassinrubikon155
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterVladikTheHtiviy
45% · 69 games54% · 24 games
Ancient ApparitionAidar
Ancient Apparition
Windranger
WindrangerSerenada
46% · 22 games
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkslimeyao
60% · 16 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenVaniLLl
58% · 23 games
Game 3prediction correct39:22
ASAKURA 60%Aim Possible 40%
The model gave 60% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 42:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemist7jesu
46% · 18 games45% · 46 games
Slarkrubikon155
Slark
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSerenada
54% · 55 games51% · 93 games
WarlockAidar
Warlock
Tidehunter
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
55% · 36 games
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionVaniLLl
58% · 8 games
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkslimeyao
47% · 22 games
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 73%
Series resultASAKURA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3