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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
One Movewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ariel · 17 games
47%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
53%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 15 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 14 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 14 games
43%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
46%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 31 game
35%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 25 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 21 game
48%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 20 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 19 games
53%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 19 games
68%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
538 picks · 757 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
439 picks · 323 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
435 picks · 709 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 404 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
399 picks · 695 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
392 picks · 883 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
389 picks · 1043 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 514 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:46
4Pirates 48%One Move 52%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 41:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNattyNarwhal
55% · 43 games46% · 110 games
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightOtaker
44% · 256 games45% · 117 games
LeshracDifference
Leshrac
Dark Seer
Dark Seerмистер мораль
57% · 95 games47% · 185 games
BristlebackChodΣX
Bristleback
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerariel
56% · 78 games54% · 159 games
WindrangerGilgir
Windranger
Jakiro
JakiroPERDAN4IK
54% · 161 game45% · 62 games
SilencerBb3px
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct12:31
4Pirates 49%One Move 51%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 32:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeOtaker
43% · 198 games49% · 163 games
Gyrocopternesfeer
Gyrocopter
Leshrac
LeshracNattyNarwhal
51% · 134 games49% · 219 games
Dragon KnightDifference
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
48% · 210 games60% · 27 games
TinkerGilgir
Tinker
Silencer
SilencerPERDAN4IK
44% · 54 games53% · 86 games
Primal BeastChodΣX
Primal Beast
Ringmaster
Ringmasterariel
55% · 32 games54% · 133 games
JakiroBb3px
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 57%
Series resultOne Move 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2