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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivoryloss 0:2
series probability
6%94%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ivory

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Rupido · 6 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dric~ · 5 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ken · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
Dric~ · 4 games
25%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 30 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 27 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 25 games
64%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 20 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Natsumi · 20 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 18 games
44%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
538 picks · 756 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
439 picks · 322 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
434 picks · 709 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
412 picks · 404 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
397 picks · 693 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
392 picks · 883 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
388 picks · 1040 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 514 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 60%
Hero pool strength60% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:28
Ivory 18%Talon Esports 82%
The model gave 82% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 32:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritKen
47% · 199 games58% · 153 games
Monkey KingNatsumi
Monkey King
Underlord
UnderlordRupido
37% · 98 games49% · 81 game
LinaMikoto
Lina
Phoenix
PhoenixDric~
49% · 298 games59% · 135 games
Centaur WarrunnerWs
Centaur Warrunner
57% · 131 game
JakiroKuku
Jakiro
52% · 95 games
WindrangerJhocam
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct10:26
Ivory 19%Talon Esports 81%
The model gave 81% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 27:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerRupido
53% · 173 games48% · 36 games
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritKen
47% · 259 games50% · 125 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Riki
RikiDric~
45% · 42 games57% · 62 games
TidehunterWs
Tidehunter
45% · 66 games
WindrangerJhocam
Windranger
49% · 185 games
ClockwerkKuku
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 94%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2