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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 30 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 27 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 25 games
64%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 20 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Natsumi · 20 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 18 games
44%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 18 games
50%

Execration

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Akashi · 13 games
62%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
90%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 9 games
33%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Tino- · 9 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Shanks · 8 games
63%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Tino- · 7 games
57%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Shanks · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
cml · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
537 picks · 755 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
439 picks · 321 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
434 picks · 708 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
412 picks · 404 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
394 picks · 691 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
391 picks · 882 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
388 picks · 1035 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 513 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% Talon Esports
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total82% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:20
Talon Esports 68%Execration 32%
The model gave 68% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
50% · 80 games49% · 172 games
GyrocopterPalos
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckMikoto
48% · 125 games62% · 16 games
Ringmastercml
Ringmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
54% · 117 games49% · 233 games
TuskShanks
Tusk
Windranger
WindrangerJhocam
46% · 77 games
Undying
UndyingKuku
50% · 22 games
Game 2prediction correct23:9
Talon Esports 69%Execration 31%
The model gave 69% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 28:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNatsumi
54% · 98 games46% · 406 games
TinyPalos
Tiny
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWs
51% · 167 games46% · 45 games
Tinkercml
Tinker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
51% · 144 games48% · 136 games
WindrangerShanks
Windranger
Warlock
WarlockKuku
63% · 72 games
Tusk
TuskJhocam
51% · 106 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 82%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2