DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backsloss 0:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AllStarswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Doomoften banned
Frank · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
Leostyle · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 2 games
Chenoften banned
Prada · 2 games
Enchantress
Prada · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
Frank · 2 games
Muerta
Michael · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
AllStars
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Accel · 1 game
Death Prophet
Sacred · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
bsK7- · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Sacred · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
bsK7- · 1 game
Warlock
Accel · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
536 picks · 746 bans
Muerta
437 picks · 319 bans
Phoenix
433 picks · 707 bans
Clockwerk
410 picks · 403 bans
Bristleback
390 picks · 882 bans
Phantom Assassin
388 picks · 687 bans
Magnus
386 picks · 1030 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 511 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:49
Estar Backs 63%AllStars 37%
The model gave 63% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by AllStars in 54:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeWits
UrsabsK7-
BristlebackFrank
AbaddonSacred
SniperLeostyle
Crystal MaidenAccel
WarlockMjz
ClockwerkPrada
Game 2prediction missed21:36
Estar Backs 64%AllStars 36%
The model gave 64% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by AllStars in 38:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerWits
SvenbsK7-
Dark SeerFrank
AbaddonSacred
TinyLeostyle
JakiroAccel
MuertaPrada
Crystal MaidenMjz
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 72%
Series resultAllStars 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2