DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Mosquito Clanwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Red Submarineloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mosquito Clan
Leshrac
PiPi · 4 games
Abaddonoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
Muerta
Yadomi · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
payk · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
payk · 2 games
Marcioften banned
payk · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
Red Submarine
Ringmaster
lffy · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Argius · 1 game
Jakiro
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Kunkka
S1RENM · 1 game
Silenceroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
S1RENM · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
535 picks · 735 bans
Muerta
433 picks · 318 bans
Phoenix
429 picks · 704 bans
Clockwerk
410 picks · 402 bans
Bristleback
385 picks · 882 bans
Phantom Assassin
384 picks · 678 bans
Magnus
382 picks · 1026 bans
Pangolier
369 picks · 510 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 60%
Hero pool strength62% Red Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Mosquito Clan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:16
Mosquito Clan 57%Red Submarine 43%
The model gave 57% on Mosquito Clan — the game was taken by Mosquito Clan in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmasterpayk
Nature's ProphetArgius
Storm SpiritPiPi
Ember SpiritS1RENM
TidehunterVitaly
SlardarHermit
RingmasterYadomi
ChenJimmyCoff666
MuertaMichael
Windrangerlffy
Game 2prediction correct30:4
Mosquito Clan 59%Red Submarine 41%
The model gave 59% on Mosquito Clan — the game was taken by Mosquito Clan in 20:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetpayk
PangolierS1RENM
Storm SpiritPiPi
TerrorbladeArgius
Sand KingVitaly
BrewmasterHermit
Night StalkerMichael
Phoenixlffy
Elder TitanYadomi
TuskJimmyCoff666
Model check result
Model favoriteMosquito Clan · 66%
Series resultMosquito Clan 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2