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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 39 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 22 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 20 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 19 games
42%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 19 games
42%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 18 games
56%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 17 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Seleri · 16 games
50%

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 35 games
37%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 31 game
52%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 24 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
50%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 23 games
48%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 23 games
39%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
533 picks · 734 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
431 picks · 318 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 703 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 402 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
385 picks · 879 bans
57%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
383 picks · 675 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
382 picks · 1022 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 510 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total91% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:17
Gaimin Gladiators 78%Zero Tenacity 22%
The model gave 78% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 35:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWatson
48% · 140 games45% · 252 games
TinyRetsu
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritQuinn
51% · 269 games43% · 79 games
SniperStojkov
Sniper
Sand King
Sand KingAce
58% · 223 games50% · 201 game
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Warlock
WarlockMalady
57% · 146 games44% · 108 games
WindrangerPablo
Windranger
Ringmaster
RingmastertOfu
55% · 31 game49% · 169 games
JakiroLeBronDota
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct25:11
Gaimin Gladiators 78%Zero Tenacity 22%
The model gave 78% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetWatson
52% · 119 games52% · 135 games
MorphlingRetsu
Morphling
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
51% · 142 games50% · 165 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritQuinn
49% · 320 games55% · 154 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Warlock
WarlockMalady
52% · 122 games37% · 79 games
WindrangerPablo
Windranger
Ringmaster
RingmastertOfu
55% · 26 games47% · 196 games
JakiroLeBronDota
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 91%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2