DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zone Academyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 26 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 20 games
Magnussignature
No!ob · 20 games
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 19 games
Clockwerk
GH · 17 games
Lionsignature
OmaR · 17 games
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
Zone Academy
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
533 picks · 730 bans
Muerta
431 picks · 318 bans
Phoenix
429 picks · 703 bans
Clockwerk
410 picks · 402 bans
Bristleback
383 picks · 879 bans
Phantom Assassin
382 picks · 670 bans
Magnus
381 picks · 1020 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 509 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total92% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:6
Nigma Galaxy 92%Zone Academy 8%
The model gave 92% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 11:05.
Game 2prediction correct64:31
Nigma Galaxy 92%Zone Academy 8%
The model gave 92% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 25:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 92%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2