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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivoryloss 1:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ivory

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Rupido · 6 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dric~ · 5 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ken · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Dric~ · 4 games
25%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Rupido · 4 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 4 games
75%

BOOM Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jaunuel · 23 games
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Mac · 23 games
57%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 23 games
65%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 22 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 20 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 19 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Fbz · 17 games
76%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
530 picks · 728 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
430 picks · 316 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 703 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 402 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
383 picks · 877 bans
57%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
382 picks · 664 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
381 picks · 1016 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 509 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total89% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:9
Ivory 23%BOOM Esports 77%
The model gave 77% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Ivory in 40:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKen
36% · 221 game63% · 68 games
LeshracArmel
Leshrac
Mars
MarsRupido
44% · 120 games56% · 76 games
LifestealerJaCkky
Lifestealer
Ringmaster
RingmasterDric~
44% · 15 games61% · 119 games
Dark SeerJabz
Dark Seer
49% · 67 games
EarthshakerTims
Earthshaker
69% · 26 games
Ancient ApparitionJaunuel
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct8:23
Ivory 28%BOOM Esports 72%
The model gave 72% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 46:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckKen
54% · 230 games47% · 138 games
MorphlingJaCkky
Morphling
Primal Beast
Primal BeastRupido
53% · 221 game52% · 92 games
Sand KingArmel
Sand King
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDric~
57% · 67 games43% · 141 game
BeastmasterJabz
Beastmaster
35% · 15 games
TinkerJaunuel
Tinker
45% · 132 games
MuertaTims
Muerta
Game 3prediction correct19:18
Ivory 24%BOOM Esports 76%
The model gave 76% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 43:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritKen
52% · 253 games57% · 134 games
MorphlingJaCkky
Morphling
Mars
MarsRupido
46% · 192 games47% · 217 games
TinyArmel
Tiny
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetDric~
50% · 92 games49% · 94 games
TerrorbladeJabz
Terrorblade
50% · 42 games
ChenJaunuel
Chen
50% · 50 games
Keeper of the LightTims
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 89%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3