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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 45 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 42 games
81%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 32 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Saksa · 31 game
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 30 games
73%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 30 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 29 games
86%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 28 games
64%

Team Secret

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 14 games
71%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 14 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Thiolicor · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Supream^ · 12 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 11 games
45%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
528 picks · 726 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
430 picks · 316 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 703 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 402 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
382 picks · 875 bans
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
382 picks · 661 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
381 picks · 1014 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 509 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 63%
Hero pool strength61% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total92% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:4
Tundra Esports 77%Team Secret 23%
The model gave 77% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 25:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallis
50% · 284 games44% · 71 game
MedusaParker
Medusa
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbzm
47% · 126 games47% · 293 games
Dragon KnightSupream^
Dragon Knight
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSaksa
50% · 97 games55% · 125 games
Dark SeerMikSa`
Dark Seer
Sand King
Sand King33
56% · 180 games56% · 100 games
ChenPuppey
Chen
Ringmaster
RingmasterWhitemon
45% · 12 games45% · 110 games
WindrangerThiolicor
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct24:36
Tundra Esports 79%Team Secret 21%
The model gave 79% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCrystallis
46% · 110 games47% · 153 games
TerrorbladeParker
Terrorblade
Invoker
Invokerbzm
51% · 164 games46% · 42 games
TinkerThiolicor
Tinker
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
52% · 305 games54% · 191 game
Storm SpiritSupream^
Storm Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerSaksa
54% · 133 games51% · 181 game
Primal BeastMikSa`
Primal Beast
Elder Titan
Elder TitanWhitemon
49% · 113 games48% · 258 games
TuskPuppey
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 92%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2