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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Sancity · 14 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Kaori · 11 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 10 games
30%

4Pirates

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ariel · 17 games
47%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
53%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
63%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 15 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 15 games
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 14 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 14 games
43%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
526 picks · 724 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
430 picks · 314 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
428 picks · 703 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 400 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
381 picks · 874 bans
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
380 picks · 657 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
379 picks · 1014 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 508 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:25
Natus Vincere 67%4Pirates 33%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 55:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
42% · 152 games50% · 370 games
TinyOtaker
Tiny
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSancity
45% · 307 games51% · 163 games
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
Storm Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBOOM
55% · 133 games54% · 153 games
Primal Beastмистер мораль
Primal Beast
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAri
46% · 42 games58% · 18 games
Ringmasterariel
Ringmaster
Warlock
WarlockKaori
55% · 106 games47% · 36 games
SilencerPERDAN4IK
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct39:8
Natus Vincere 68%4Pirates 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 28:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYuragi
45% · 97 games44% · 221 game
TerrorbladeOtaker
Terrorblade
Sand King
Sand KingBOOM
62% · 97 games73% · 7 games
Outworld DestroyerNattyNarwhal
Outworld Destroyer
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSancity
50% · 215 games47% · 135 games
Tidehunterмистер мораль
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
50% · 213 games49% · 140 games
WarlockPERDAN4IK
Warlock
Magnus
MagnusAri
55% · 172 games50% · 291 game
Tuskariel
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 80%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2