Ivory vs Trailer Park Boys — prediction DS2ЗК · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Ivorywin 2:0

series probability

27%73%

probability at match start · final 2:0

TPTrailer Park Boysloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ivory

Dawnbreakeroften banned

Rupido · 6 games

33%

Earth Spiritoften banned

Ken · 6 games

50%

Storm Spiritoften banned

Ken · 6 games

33%

Clockwerk

Dric~ · 5 games

40%

Invokeroften banned

Ken · 5 games

60%

Lion

Dric~ · 4 games

25%

Magnusoften banned

Rupido · 4 games

Terrorbladeoften banned

Rupido · 4 games

75%

Trailer Park Boys

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

525 picks · 722 bans

48%

Muerta

429 picks · 314 bans

52%

Phoenix

427 picks · 702 bans

52%

Clockwerk

410 picks · 400 bans

52%

Bristleback

380 picks · 873 bans

58%

Phantom Assassin

380 picks · 654 bans

52%

Magnus

378 picks · 1011 bans

58%

Pangolier

366 picks · 508 bans

48%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)36% vs 67%

Hero pool strength54% Trailer Park Boys

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total73% Trailer Park Boys

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed26:12

Ivory 37%Trailer Park Boys 63%

The model gave 63% on Trailer Park Boys — the game was taken by Ivory in 41:37.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo