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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Essencewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 30 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 27 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 25 games
64%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 20 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 18 games
44%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ws · 18 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 18 games
56%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 18 games
78%

Team Essence

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
NARMAN · 3 games
67%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Armel · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Raven · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Ponyo · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 2 games
100%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Raven · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
523 picks · 720 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
429 picks · 314 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
427 picks · 701 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 400 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
379 picks · 649 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
378 picks · 872 bans
58%
Magnus
Magnus
378 picks · 1006 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 507 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:27
Talon Esports 74%Team Essence 26%
The model gave 74% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Team Essence in 31:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNatsumi
52% · 118 games48% · 97 games
Troll WarlordAkashi
Troll Warlord
Tiny
TinyMikoto
48% · 158 games48% · 280 games
Storm SpiritMac
Storm Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaWs
53% · 47 games52% · 67 games
Shadow ShamanPonyo
Shadow Shaman
Tinker
TinkerKuku
60% · 15 games
Tusk
TuskJhocam
50% · 106 games
Game 2prediction correct31:20
Talon Esports 75%Team Essence 25%
The model gave 75% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 54:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNatsumi
49% · 132 games43% · 182 games
TerrorbladeAkashi
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMikoto
49% · 281 game57% · 337 games
TinyMac
Tiny
Tinker
TinkerKuku
54% · 23 games48% · 185 games
Shadow DemonPonyo
Shadow Demon
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWs
51% · 258 games
Ringmaster
RingmasterJhocam
57% · 10 games
Game 3prediction missed17:28
Talon Esports 74%Team Essence 26%
The model gave 74% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Team Essence in 45:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNatsumi
45% · 68 games49% · 117 games
MedusaAkashi
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMikoto
42% · 133 games56% · 254 games
Monkey KingMac
Monkey King
Bristleback
BristlebackWs
54% · 90 games51% · 75 games
DisruptorPonyo
Disruptor
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJhocam
51% · 105 games
Jakiro
JakiroKuku
50% · 50 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 90%
Series resultTeam Essence 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3