DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZwin 2:1series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The MongolZ
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 11 games
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 10 games
Pucksignature
Wonder'boy · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
Hishge · 9 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JG · 7 games
Doomoften banned
JG · 7 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Bob · 7 games
Execration
Terrorbladesignature
Akashi · 13 games
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 9 games
Marcioften banned
Tino- · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Shanks · 8 games
Magnusoften banned
Tino- · 7 games
Muertasignature
Shanks · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
cml · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
523 picks · 720 bans
Muerta
429 picks · 314 bans
Phoenix
427 picks · 701 bans
Clockwerk
410 picks · 400 bans
Phantom Assassin
379 picks · 649 bans
Bristleback
378 picks · 872 bans
Magnus
378 picks · 1006 bans
Pangolier
365 picks · 507 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total65% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:25
The MongolZ 45%Execration 55%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 46:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierBob
Phantom AssassinPalos
EnigmaJG
Undyingcml
Night StalkerDJ
Shadow ShamanShanks
Game 2prediction missed30:12
The MongolZ 40%Execration 60%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainBob
LunaPalos
MarsJG
Ancient Apparitioncml
TuskDJ
Night StalkerShanks
Game 3prediction missed28:29
The MongolZ 42%Execration 58%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 52:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritBob
Templar AssassinPalos
BristlebackJG
VenomancerShanks
TuskDJ
Jakirocml
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 65%
Series resultThe MongolZ 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3