DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction55Strangersloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LLowProfilewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5Strangers
No games played over 6 months.
LowProfile
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
522 picks · 717 bans
Muerta
429 picks · 313 bans
Phoenix
426 picks · 701 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 399 bans
Phantom Assassin
379 picks · 647 bans
Bristleback
378 picks · 871 bans
Magnus
378 picks · 1003 bans
Pangolier
364 picks · 507 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% 5Strangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% LowProfile
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:28
5Strangers 24%LowProfile 76%
The model gave 76% on LowProfile — the game was taken by LowProfile in 36:06.
Game 2prediction correct14:32
5Strangers 24%LowProfile 76%
The model gave 76% on LowProfile — the game was taken by LowProfile in 20:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteLowProfile · 76%
Series resultLowProfile 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2