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DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ariel · 17 games
47%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
53%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
63%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 15 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 14 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
43%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
46%

Hydra

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
38%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 7 games
86%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 7 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 7 games
29%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
519 picks · 714 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
428 picks · 312 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
426 picks · 699 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 399 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
378 picks · 869 bans
58%
Magnus
Magnus
377 picks · 999 bans
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
377 picks · 644 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 506 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 39%
Hero pool strength53% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total57% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:10
4Pirates 54%Hydra 46%
The model gave 54% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyOtaker
54% · 221 game42% · 147 games
Terrorbladeselfhate
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
58% · 93 games44% · 78 games
Queen of Painmellojul
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
Tidehunterмистер мораль
63% · 54 games39% · 147 games
MarsActor
Mars
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterariel
57% · 44 games45% · 60 games
Venomancer633
Venomancer
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPERDAN4IK
64% · 20 games
Game 2prediction correct36:9
4Pirates 53%Hydra 47%
The model gave 53% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 45:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinOtaker
48% · 62 games54% · 87 games
Templar Assassinselfhate
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
54% · 103 games45% · 94 games
Sand Kingmellojul
Sand King
Venomancer
Venomancerariel
59% · 23 games46% · 66 games
AbaddonActor
Abaddon
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
51% · 72 games49% · 37 games
Ancient Apparition633
Ancient Apparition
Silencer
SilencerPERDAN4IK
45% · 24 games
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 57%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2