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DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aim Possiblewin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aim Possible

No games played over 6 months.

Level UP

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 11 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 10 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
MaTson · 8 games
25%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 7 games
29%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Focus · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
SsaSpartan · 6 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Wuiter · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
519 picks · 714 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
428 picks · 312 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
426 picks · 699 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 399 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
378 picks · 869 bans
58%
Magnus
Magnus
377 picks · 999 bans
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
377 picks · 644 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 506 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 30%
Hero pool strength52% Aim Possible
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:13
Aim Possible 49%Level UP 51%
The model gave 51% on Level UP — the game was taken by Aim Possible in 28:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladerubikon155
52% · 84 games56% · 30 games
Queen of PainMaTson
Queen of Pain
Warlock
WarlockAidar
41% · 39 games51% · 93 games
MuertaAtoufix
Muerta
Game 2prediction missed
Aim Possible 45%Level UP 55%
The model gave 55% on Level UP — the game was taken by Aim Possible.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 55%
Series resultAim Possible 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2