DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 1:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Apple City Gangloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Clockwerk
ariel · 17 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
Muerta
ariel · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 14 games
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
Apple City Gang
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 7 games
Marcioften banned
flacko · 6 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Norma · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
Clockwerk
Astral · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 4 games
Jakiro
flacko · 4 games
Leshrac
dualrazee · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
517 picks · 712 bans
Muerta
427 picks · 312 bans
Phoenix
426 picks · 698 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 399 bans
Bristleback
378 picks · 868 bans
Magnus
377 picks · 997 bans
Phantom Assassin
377 picks · 642 bans
Pangolier
364 picks · 505 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Apple City Gang
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
4Pirates 44%Apple City Gang 56%
The model gave 56% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Model check result
Model favoriteApple City Gang · 56%
Series result4Pirates 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1