DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 1:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Kalmychataloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Monkey Kingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 7 games
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 7 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
Kalmychata
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
517 picks · 712 bans
Muerta
427 picks · 312 bans
Phoenix
426 picks · 698 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 399 bans
Bristleback
378 picks · 868 bans
Magnus
377 picks · 997 bans
Phantom Assassin
377 picks · 642 bans
Pangolier
364 picks · 505 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Hydra 53%Kalmychata 47%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 53%
Series resultHydra 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1