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The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eatersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 35 games
49%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 25 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Davai · 24 games
46%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 24 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 23 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 22 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
48%

Rune Eaters

Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 39 games
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 37 games
70%
Tiny
Tiny
ani-san · 37 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 34 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 25 games
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Ankou · 23 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 23 games
57%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Ethereal · 22 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
637 picks · 439 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
589 picks · 332 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
472 picks · 556 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
457 picks · 659 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 373 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 523 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 407 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 1029 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:10
Nigma Galaxy 68%Rune Eaters 32%
The model gave 68% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinySumaiL
52% · 329 games45% · 182 games
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
Terrorblade
Underlord
UnderlordDavai
53% · 199 games51% · 388 games
BeastmasterMalik
Beastmaster
Viper
ViperLorenof
47% · 106 games40% · 26 games
LinaCopy
Lina
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
52% · 211 games51% · 262 games
SnapfireEkki
Snapfire
Ringmaster
RingmasterOmaR
58% · 220 games47% · 207 games
Clockwerkaik
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct40:43
Nigma Galaxy 66%Rune Eaters 34%
The model gave 66% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 57:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosSumaiL
53% · 63 games55% · 226 games
WindrangerDarkLord^
Windranger
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
48% · 593 games54% · 164 games
Nature's ProphetEkki
Nature's Prophet
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
52% · 280 games44% · 274 games
SnapfireMalik
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
48% · 396 games49% · 441 game
Ember SpiritCopy
Ember Spirit
Lion
LionOmaR
49% · 219 games50% · 446 games
Hoodwinkaik
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 79%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2