?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Flame Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 36 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 35 games
66%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 32 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 31 game
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 29 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 29 games
52%
Tiny
Tiny
Worick · 27 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Nefrit · 25 games
40%

Flame Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 12 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
emptiness · 7 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Stoic · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 5 games
60%
Windranger
Windranger
legacy · 5 games
40%
Undying
Undying
emptiness · 4 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Stoic · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
636 picks · 438 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
589 picks · 331 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
472 picks · 556 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
457 picks · 659 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
433 picks · 373 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 521 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 407 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 1027 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total82% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:29
Zero Tenacity 70%Flame Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 48:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerSmiling Knight
47% · 9 games58% · 85 games
Lycanemptiness
Lycan
Invoker
InvokerWorick
45% · 66 games45% · 101 game
Dark WillowJeezy
Dark Willow
Undying
UndyingMikSa`
53% · 63 games51% · 141 game
ClockwerkStoic
Clockwerk
Lion
LiondEsire
50% · 74 games
Bane
Baneasdekor_r
48% · 115 games
Game 2prediction correct47:20
Zero Tenacity 69%Flame Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 35:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
50% · 188 games51% · 425 games
Snapfireemptiness
Snapfire
Invoker
InvokerWorick
57% · 141 game49% · 404 games
TinyJeezy
Tiny
Axe
AxeMikSa`
44% · 163 games48% · 345 games
DisruptorStoic
Disruptor
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
53% · 520 games
Enchantress
Enchantressasdekor_r
48% · 162 games
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 82%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2