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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 59 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 48 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 38 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 36 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 35 games
89%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 33 games
58%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 29 games
72%
Muerta
Muerta
Cr1t- · 29 games
59%

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 16 games
88%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 16 games
75%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 11 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 9 games
56%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
pLAnet · 9 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
shiro · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
511 picks · 708 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
425 picks · 694 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
420 picks · 310 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 398 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
376 picks · 862 bans
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
376 picks · 630 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
375 picks · 991 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 501 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 70%
Hero pool strength55% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total62% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:41
Team Falcons 55%Team Tidebound 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 1:10:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinySkiter
45% · 327 games54% · 99 games
LycanFaith_bian
Lycan
Pangolier
PangolierATF
46% · 240 games52% · 172 games
Phantom Assassinshiro
Phantom Assassin
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
50% · 79 games48% · 85 games
SlardarNothingToSay
Slardar
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
53% · 69 games56% · 107 games
Night StalkerpLAnet
Night Stalker
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSneyking
58% · 31 game47% · 283 games
Muertay`
Muerta
Game 2prediction missed9:23
Team Falcons 54%Team Tidebound 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 47:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonSkiter
41% · 112 games51% · 264 games
Gyrocoptershiro
Gyrocopter
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMalr1ne
54% · 145 games50% · 178 games
TerrorbladeFaith_bian
Terrorblade
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
54% · 211 games49% · 336 games
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Muerta
MuertaCr1t-
48% · 324 games52% · 152 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
57% · 243 games44% · 105 games
Night StalkerpLAnet
Night Stalker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 62%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2