Capy Baras vs Mafia Power — prediction DS2ОК · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Capy Baraswin 2:0

series probability

67%33%

probability at match start · final 2:0

MPMafia Powerloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Capy Baras

No games played over 6 months.

Mafia Power

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

510 picks · 701 bans

48%

Phoenix

425 picks · 694 bans

52%

Muerta

419 picks · 310 bans

52%

Clockwerk

409 picks · 398 bans

52%

Bristleback

376 picks · 856 bans

58%

Magnus

374 picks · 988 bans

58%

Phantom Assassin

372 picks · 627 bans

52%

Pangolier

361 picks · 498 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%

Hero pool strength50% Capy Baras

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total67% Capy Baras

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct46:18

Capy Baras 59%Mafia Power 41%

The model gave 59% on Capy Baras — the game was taken by Capy Baras in 32:12.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

Phantom AssassinKiritych

46% · 55 games49% · 233 games

BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL