DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BBBikini Bottomloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 35 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 31 game
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 24 games
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
Lich
LeBronDota · 23 games
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 23 games
Bikini Bottom
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
510 picks · 701 bans
Phoenix
425 picks · 694 bans
Muerta
419 picks · 310 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 398 bans
Bristleback
376 picks · 856 bans
Magnus
374 picks · 988 bans
Phantom Assassin
372 picks · 627 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Bikini Bottom
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:20
Zero Tenacity 61%Bikini Bottom 39%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Bikini Bottom in 32:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingRetsu
Terrorbladerincyq
TidehunterNefrit
Outworld Destroyerряф^^
Ember SpiritStojkov
MarsfortniteMan
TinkerLeBronDota
Bounty HunterQBFY
TuskPablo
Jakiroaik
Game 2prediction correct34:11
Zero Tenacity 61%Bikini Bottom 39%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingRetsu
Phantom Assassinrincyq
Dark SeerNefrit
Leshracряф^^
Queen of PainStojkov
MarsfortniteMan
EarthshakerPablo
Jakiroaik
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
Bounty HunterQBFY
Game 3prediction correct22:17
Zero Tenacity 60%Bikini Bottom 40%
The model gave 60% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 28:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightRetsu
Windrangerряф^^
Dark SeerNefrit
Monkey Kingrincyq
SniperStojkov
Night StalkerfortniteMan
EarthshakerPablo
Jakiroaik
WarlockLeBronDota
LionQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 70%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3