DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Y5 Esportsloss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ASAKURAwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Y5 Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
Dominic · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Dominic · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
ASAKURA
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 11 games
Elder Titansignature
VaniLLl · 10 games
Lich
VaniLLl · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
young G · 10 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 10 games
Magnussignature
Infernal · 9 games
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
509 picks · 700 bans
Phoenix
425 picks · 694 bans
Muerta
417 picks · 310 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 398 bans
Bristleback
374 picks · 855 bans
Magnus
373 picks · 986 bans
Phantom Assassin
371 picks · 624 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:30
Y5 Esports 35%ASAKURA 65%
The model gave 65% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 45:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterDominic
Gyrocopter7jesu
40% · 41 game
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
43% · 88 games
Dragon KnightSerenada
63% · 12 games
Ancient ApparitionVaniLLl
55% · 69 games
Hoodwinkslimeyao
Game 2prediction correct28:47
Y5 Esports 35%ASAKURA 65%
The model gave 65% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 46:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TidehunterDominic
BristlebackVladikTheHtiviy
42% · 8 games
Monkey King7jesu
55% · 16 games
Storm SpiritSerenada
54% · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightslimeyao
49% · 33 games
JakiroVaniLLl
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 76%
Series resultASAKURA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2