DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SSYXloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 30 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 25 games
Muerta
not me · 20 games
Marcisignature
not me · 19 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 18 games
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 17 games
SYX
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
509 picks · 700 bans
Phoenix
425 picks · 694 bans
Muerta
417 picks · 310 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 398 bans
Bristleback
374 picks · 855 bans
Magnus
373 picks · 986 bans
Phantom Assassin
371 picks · 624 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% SYX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:14
One Move 58%SYX 42%
The model gave 58% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 37:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassinnesfeer
LifestealerShigetsu
Monkey KingDifference
Ember Spiritxn丶e
Primal BeastChodΣX
Magnusyamich
MuertaGilgir
Silencerififall
Game 2prediction correct43:21
One Move 60%SYX 40%
The model gave 60% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 45:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetnesfeer
TinyShigetsu
Monkey KingDifference
Storm Spiritxn丶e
BristlebackChodΣX
Muertayamich
WindrangerGilgir
Jakiroififall
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 70%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2