DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:1series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 0:1
MPMafia Powerwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 15 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 15 games
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
Hoodwink
Ari · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nine · 11 games
Muerta
Daze · 11 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Ari · 11 games
Mafia Power
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 696 bans
Phoenix
425 picks · 694 bans
Muerta
416 picks · 307 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 398 bans
Bristleback
374 picks · 849 bans
Magnus
370 picks · 983 bans
Phantom Assassin
369 picks · 618 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 495 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Mafia Power
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
OG 90%Mafia Power 10%
The model gave 90% on OG — the game was taken by Mafia Power.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 90%
Series resultMafia Power 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1