DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionTPTrailer Park Boyswin 1:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Essenceloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Trailer Park Boys
No games played over 6 months.
Team Essence
Clockwerk
NARMAN · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Armel · 3 games
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Raven · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Armel · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Ponyo · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Raven · 2 games
Zeus
Varizh · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 691 bans
Phoenix
425 picks · 694 bans
Muerta
415 picks · 306 bans
Clockwerk
408 picks · 398 bans
Bristleback
372 picks · 849 bans
Magnus
370 picks · 979 bans
Phantom Assassin
367 picks · 616 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 494 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Team Essence
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Essence
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Trailer Park Boys 48%Team Essence 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Essence — the game was taken by Trailer Park Boys.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Essence · 52%
Series resultTrailer Park Boys 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1