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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Falconswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 44 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 40 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Saksa · 31 game
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 31 game
71%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 29 games
86%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nightfall · 28 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 27 games
63%

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 57 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 46 games
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 38 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 35 games
89%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 33 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 32 games
56%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 28 games
75%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 689 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
427 picks · 694 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
414 picks · 305 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
408 picks · 398 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
370 picks · 849 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
368 picks · 972 bans
59%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
366 picks · 611 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 496 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head8 – 9
Model total72% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:15
Tundra Esports 63%Team Falcons 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 51:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyerbzm
36% · 7 games45% · 26 games
DazzleATF
Dazzle
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
57% · 208 games47% · 93 games
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Doom
Doom33
53% · 266 games50% · 271 game
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Ringmaster
RingmasterWhitemon
43% · 3 games45% · 122 games
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Windranger
WindrangerSaksa
48% · 143 games51% · 115 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed13:25
Tundra Esports 63%Team Falcons 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
56% · 136 games56% · 217 games
BristlebackSkiter
Bristleback
Magnus
MagnusCrystallis
57% · 119 games47% · 166 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
46% · 215 games45% · 146 games
MarsATF
Mars
Windranger
WindrangerSaksa
45% · 105 games46% · 41 game
ClinkzCr1t-
Clinkz
Silencer
SilencerWhitemon
52% · 21 game52% · 26 games
DazzleSneyking
Dazzle
Game 3prediction missed34:37
Tundra Esports 62%Team Falcons 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:09:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
45% · 181 game50% · 194 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Razor
RazorCrystallis
55% · 128 games48% · 167 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Abaddon
Abaddon33
44% · 87 games50% · 77 games
EarthshakerMalr1ne
Earthshaker
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSaksa
54% · 119 games49% · 202 games
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
54% · 147 games52% · 22 games
Ancient ApparitionSneyking
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 72%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3