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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 30 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 27 games
70%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 26 games
69%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 26 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
83%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 21 game
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 21 game
67%

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 14 games
93%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 11 games
82%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 9 games
56%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
pLAnet · 9 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 693 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 694 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
417 picks · 309 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 401 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
372 picks · 853 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
369 picks · 971 bans
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
363 picks · 609 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 499 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:23
PARIVISION 58%Team Tidebound 42%
The model gave 58% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 35:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSatanic
47% · 77 games48% · 158 games
Phantom Assassinshiro
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
TinyNo[o]ne
49% · 403 games48% · 421 game
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Abaddon
AbaddonDM
40% · 95 games59% · 174 games
Dark SeerFaith_bian
Dark Seer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
53% · 61 game57% · 67 games
Faceless VoidpLAnet
Faceless Void
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDukalis
50% · 355 games51% · 171 game
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct27:6
PARIVISION 60%Team Tidebound 40%
The model gave 60% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 22:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSatanic
42% · 148 games45% · 312 games
Tinyshiro
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
53% · 280 games54% · 131 game
Dark SeerFaith_bian
Dark Seer
Underlord
UnderlordDM
43% · 153 games40% · 6 games
Outworld DestroyerNothingToSay
Outworld Destroyer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
59% · 70 games53% · 145 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Disruptor
DisruptorDukalis
51% · 119 games52% · 176 games
TuskpLAnet
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed25:43
PARIVISION 62%Team Tidebound 38%
The model gave 62% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 54:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSatanic
53% · 94 games51% · 40 games
Nature's Prophetshiro
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
52% · 235 games51% · 177 games
Dragon KnightNothingToSay
Dragon Knight
Dazzle
DazzleDM
50% · 44 games47% · 92 games
WindrangerpLAnet
Windranger
Clinkz
Clinkz9Class
49% · 39 games43% · 91 game
MarsFaith_bian
Mars
Disruptor
DisruptorDukalis
53% · 90 games52% · 102 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 70%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3