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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 38 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 30 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 30 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 26 games
81%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 24 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 22 games
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%

BETBOOM TEAM

Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 35 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 27 games
70%
Tusk
Tusk
Kataomi · 26 games
54%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Save- · 25 games
64%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
68%
Magnus
Magnussignature
MieRo · 21 game
76%
Lich
Lichsignature
Kataomi · 19 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
kiyotaka · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 691 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
432 picks · 697 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
417 picks · 405 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
415 picks · 317 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
372 picks · 970 bans
58%
Bristleback
Bristleback
371 picks · 861 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 502 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
362 picks · 422 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head4 – 7
Model total53% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:14
Team Liquid 54%BETBOOM TEAM 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeavermiCKe
52% · 107 games48% · 195 games
PuckgpK~
Puck
Riki
RikiNisha
57% · 57 games46% · 118 games
DawnbreakerPure~
Dawnbreaker
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
60% · 134 games41% · 72 games
AbaddonMieRo
Abaddon
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
50% · 104 games46% · 237 games
BatriderSave-
Batrider
Tusk
TuskBoxi
49% · 243 games59% · 23 games
Ancient ApparitionKataomi
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed37:35
Team Liquid 50%BETBOOM TEAM 50%
The model gave 50% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:03:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperNisha
49% · 183 games54% · 164 games
Monkey KingPure~
Monkey King
Tiny
TinymiCKe
51% · 453 games49% · 367 games
Dragon KnightgpK~
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
45% · 228 games58% · 174 games
BristlebackMieRo
Bristleback
Windranger
WindrangerBoxi
44% · 200 games44% · 201 game
Crystal MaidenKataomi
Crystal Maiden
Silencer
SilenceriNSaNiA
57% · 32 games54% · 190 games
WeaverSave-
Weaver
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 53%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2