?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 56 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 45 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 38 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 35 games
89%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 31 game
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 31 game
58%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
61%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 27 games
78%

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 14 games
93%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 10 games
80%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
pLAnet · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
88%
Io
Iosignature
y` · 8 games
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 686 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
431 picks · 697 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
418 picks · 405 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
412 picks · 316 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
372 picks · 966 bans
58%
Bristleback
Bristleback
370 picks · 860 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 502 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
364 picks · 423 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 70%
Hero pool strength55% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:17
Team Falcons 59%Team Tidebound 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 49:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonSkiter
40% · 118 games41% · 108 games
Terrorbladeshiro
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
55% · 246 games45% · 169 games
BeastmasterFaith_bian
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand KingATF
58% · 168 games60% · 29 games
DazzleNothingToSay
Dazzle
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSneyking
60% · 32 games48% · 151 game
MuertapLAnet
Muerta
Riki
RikiCr1t-
55% · 48 games49% · 155 games
Tusky`
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed7:34
Team Falcons 58%Team Tidebound 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 27:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
47% · 170 games49% · 126 games
Phantom Assassinshiro
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
50% · 310 games59% · 169 games
Dark SeerFaith_bian
Dark Seer
Abaddon
AbaddonATF
41% · 90 games48% · 234 games
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Ember Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerCr1t-
52% · 92 games49% · 83 games
Night StalkerpLAnet
Night Stalker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
57% · 174 games47% · 224 games
Muertay`
Muerta
Game 3prediction missed17:21
Team Falcons 57%Team Tidebound 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 47:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
39% · 114 games51% · 124 games
Phantom Assassinshiro
Phantom Assassin
Abaddon
AbaddonATF
46% · 50 games56% · 169 games
Sand KingFaith_bian
Sand King
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
43% · 351 game47% · 250 games
Primal BeastNothingToSay
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenSneyking
53% · 107 games65% · 18 games
Ancient ApparitionpLAnet
Ancient Apparition
Windranger
WindrangerCr1t-
61% · 136 games52% · 197 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 70%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3