FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 36 games
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 22 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 17 games
Mirana
tOfu · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
Clockwerk
Seleri · 16 games
Doomoften banned
Ace · 16 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 16 games
PARIVISION
Batridersignature
9Class · 30 games
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 27 games
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 26 games
Enigmasignature
DM · 26 games
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 21 game
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 687 bans
Phoenix
432 picks · 698 bans
Clockwerk
418 picks · 407 bans
Muerta
413 picks · 317 bans
Magnus
372 picks · 965 bans
Bristleback
371 picks · 862 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 501 bans
Batrider
365 picks · 424 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% PARIVISION
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total69% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:32
Gaimin Gladiators 39%PARIVISION 61%
The model gave 61% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 35:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeWatson
Monkey KingSatanic
BristlebackAce
SniperNo[o]ne
Queen of PainQuinn
BrewmasterDM
Keeper of the LighttOfu
Night Stalker9Class
Elder TitanMalady
JakiroDukalis
Game 2prediction correct14:28
Gaimin Gladiators 40%PARIVISION 60%
The model gave 60% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 26:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckQuinn
Phantom AssassinSatanic
Dark SeerAce
DazzleDM
Dragon KnightWatson
SlardarNo[o]ne
JakiroMalady
Techies9Class
RikitOfu
Elder TitanDukalis
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 69%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2