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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 26 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 23 games
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Mac · 23 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 22 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 21 game
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 18 games
72%
Doom
Doomsignature
Fbz · 17 games
71%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 17 games
65%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 14 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Bignum · 10 games
60%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 10 games
80%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 10 games
40%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 687 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
432 picks · 698 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
418 picks · 407 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
413 picks · 317 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
372 picks · 965 bans
58%
Bristleback
Bristleback
371 picks · 862 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 501 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
365 picks · 424 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:3
BOOM Esports 58%Wildcard Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 29:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightJaCkky
53% · 305 games46% · 479 games
PangolierRCY
Pangolier
Leshrac
LeshracArmel
50% · 127 games46% · 251 game
TerrorbladeYamSun
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterJabz
54% · 329 games45% · 124 games
TidehunterFayde
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinyTims
54% · 366 games54% · 51 game
TinkerSpeeed
Tinker
Silencer
SilencerJaunuel
48% · 37 games50% · 259 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct16:8
BOOM Esports 59%Wildcard Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerJaCkky
54% · 166 games48% · 79 games
Phantom AssassinYamSun
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritArmel
53% · 217 games51% · 254 games
TinyRCY
Tiny
Tidehunter
TidehunterJabz
51% · 148 games40% · 80 games
TerrorbladeFayde
Terrorblade
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightTims
56% · 61 game41% · 69 games
WarlockSpeeed
Warlock
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionJaunuel
51% · 37 games53% · 147 games
MuertaBignum
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 64%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2