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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 44 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 38 games
79%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Saksa · 31 game
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 30 games
70%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 29 games
86%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nightfall · 27 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 27 games
63%

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 38 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 30 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 30 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 26 games
81%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 24 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 22 games
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 688 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
432 picks · 702 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
421 picks · 408 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
414 picks · 317 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
372 picks · 862 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
372 picks · 965 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 502 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
365 picks · 424 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 49%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 6
Model total51% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:30
Tundra Esports 52%Team Liquid 48%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
51% · 143 games41% · 147 games
SvenmiCKe
Sven
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
55% · 156 games47% · 369 games
Dragon KnightNisha
Dragon Knight
Doom
Doom33
55% · 149 games50% · 38 games
DazzleSabeRLight-
Dazzle
Tiny
TinySaksa
52% · 317 games50% · 196 games
WeaverBoxi
Weaver
Silencer
SilencerFly
53% · 20 games48% · 35 games
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct10:41
Tundra Esports 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 25:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinCrystallis
46% · 85 games47% · 66 games
UrsamiCKe
Ursa
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painbzm
44% · 93 games52% · 111 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Abaddon
Abaddon33
44% · 52 games61% · 92 games
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
Dark Seer
Magnus
MagnusSaksa
55% · 125 games53% · 16 games
TinkeriNSaNiA
Tinker
Warlock
WarlockFly
44% · 77 games52% · 147 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct22:22
Tundra Esports 52%Team Liquid 48%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusCrystallis
61% · 172 games48% · 234 games
TerrorblademiCKe
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
50% · 291 game52% · 200 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Doom
Doom33
53% · 218 games45% · 47 games
TinkeriNSaNiA
Tinker
Muerta
MuertaSaksa
51% · 239 games41% · 176 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionFly
63% · 21 game44% · 284 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 51%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3