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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 31 game
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 27 games
78%
Tusk
Tusk
Miposhka · 26 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 24 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
68%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 36 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 22 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 16 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 16 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
tOfu · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 687 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
433 picks · 703 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
421 picks · 409 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
413 picks · 319 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
372 picks · 862 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
371 picks · 963 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
366 picks · 424 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 502 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total80% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:25
Team Spirit 67%Gaimin Gladiators 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:04:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYatoro
50% · 325 games45% · 164 games
TerrorbladeWatson
Terrorblade
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
56% · 114 games50% · 262 games
Ember SpiritQuinn
Ember Spirit
Elder Titan
Elder TitanCollapse
51% · 90 games48% · 185 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Jakiro
JakiroMiposhka
51% · 133 games49% · 66 games
VenomancertOfu
Venomancer
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterrue
45% · 47 games55% · 32 games
Ancient ApparitionMalady
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct32:19
Team Spirit 68%Gaimin Gladiators 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYatoro
55% · 97 games51% · 142 games
BristlebackAce
Bristleback
Sand King
Sand KingCollapse
51% · 139 games59% · 27 games
Anti-MageWatson
Anti-Mage
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
46% · 147 games49% · 246 games
Dragon KnightQuinn
Dragon Knight
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightrue
41% · 51 game51% · 15 games
DazzleMalady
Dazzle
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
46% · 92 games53% · 96 games
MiranatOfu
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 80%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2