?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Night Pulseloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 42 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 37 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Saksa · 31 game
58%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 29 games
86%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nightfall · 27 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 27 games
63%

Night Pulse

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kidaro · 20 games
75%
Muerta
Muerta
dEsire · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Worick · 17 games
76%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Kami · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 15 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 14 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
dEsire · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 684 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
435 picks · 704 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
423 picks · 411 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
413 picks · 322 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
377 picks · 874 bans
58%
Magnus
Magnus
374 picks · 958 bans
57%
Batrider
Batrider
370 picks · 429 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 504 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:42
Tundra Esports 64%Night Pulse 36%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 55:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorCrystallis
52% · 180 games45% · 234 games
TerrorbladeKami
Terrorblade
Abaddon
Abaddon33
50% · 82 games51% · 257 games
DoomDavai
Doom
Tiny
Tinybzm
47% · 442 games51% · 252 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Muerta
MuertaSaksa
54% · 214 games49% · 291 game
RubickLelis
Rubick
Jakiro
JakiroFly
49% · 242 games53% · 126 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct40:28
Tundra Esports 63%Night Pulse 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 49:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
56% · 223 games53% · 47 games
Nature's ProphetWorick
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
45% · 267 games51% · 35 games
SlarkKami
Slark
Razor
RazorCrystallis
50% · 101 game42% · 325 games
PangolierDavai
Pangolier
Silencer
SilencerFly
55% · 34 games51% · 141 game
WeaverLelis
Weaver
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSaksa
53% · 56 games51% · 133 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct28:6
Tundra Esports 65%Night Pulse 35%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 22:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterbzm
45% · 351 game41% · 116 games
SvenKami
Sven
Magnus
MagnusCrystallis
55% · 233 games52% · 117 games
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Doom
Doom33
57% · 289 games47% · 308 games
Dragon KnightWorick
Dragon Knight
Tinker
TinkerFly
51% · 55 games49% · 402 games
ClockwerkLelis
Clockwerk
Windranger
WindrangerSaksa
55% · 202 games47% · 187 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 75%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3