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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 34 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 26 games
65%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 23 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 21 game
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 20 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 20 games
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ws · 20 games
65%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 20 games
75%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 22 games
64%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 12 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Bignum · 10 games
60%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 9 games
78%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 9 games
78%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 684 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
435 picks · 704 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
423 picks · 411 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
413 picks · 322 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
377 picks · 874 bans
58%
Magnus
Magnus
374 picks · 958 bans
57%
Batrider
Batrider
370 picks · 429 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 504 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:9
Talon Esports 71%Wildcard Gaming 29%
The model gave 71% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 28:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNatsumi
50% · 344 games45% · 123 games
Phantom AssassinYamSun
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMikoto
50% · 363 games51% · 66 games
SlardarRCY
Slardar
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderWs
61% · 34 games58% · 187 games
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
Centaur Warrunner
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKuku
44% · 17 games44% · 226 games
MuertaBignum
Muerta
Night Stalker
Night StalkerJhocam
44% · 111 games54% · 267 games
PhoenixSpeeed
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed7:29
Talon Esports 71%Wildcard Gaming 29%
The model gave 71% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 33:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNatsumi
56% · 87 games48% · 103 games
Nature's ProphetRCY
Nature's Prophet
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMikoto
48% · 291 game45% · 241 game
SvenYamSun
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWs
60% · 125 games52% · 207 games
MagnusFayde
Magnus
Weaver
WeaverKuku
48% · 114 games50% · 126 games
WarlockSpeeed
Warlock
Tiny
TinyJhocam
47% · 281 game46% · 221 game
TuskBignum
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct31:18
Talon Esports 71%Wildcard Gaming 29%
The model gave 71% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 36:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
48% · 63 games58% · 158 games
AlchemistYamSun
Alchemist
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
46% · 276 games59% · 233 games
Storm SpiritRCY
Storm Spirit
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWs
38% · 150 games60% · 147 games
Dark SeerFayde
Dark Seer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightJhocam
49% · 69 games36% · 9 games
Ancient ApparitionSpeeed
Ancient Apparition
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKuku
44% · 396 games48% · 407 games
TinyBignum
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 84%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3