FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Muertasignature
Save- · 34 games
Tusk
Kataomi · 26 games
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 25 games
Batridersignature
Save- · 24 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
Magnussignature
MieRo · 21 game
Lichsignature
Kataomi · 19 games
Dawnbreakersignature
MieRo · 18 games
M80
Clockwerk
MoOz · 28 games
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
MoOz · 22 games
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 18 games
Gyrocoptersignature
K1 · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 18 games
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 18 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
K1 · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
500 picks · 686 bans
Phoenix
437 picks · 705 bans
Clockwerk
424 picks · 412 bans
Muerta
413 picks · 323 bans
Bristleback
376 picks · 875 bans
Magnus
376 picks · 957 bans
Batrider
371 picks · 429 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 503 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total90% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:32
BETBOOM TEAM 75%M80 25%
The model gave 75% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by M80 in 50:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingPure~
AbaddonK1
BeastmasterMieRo
TinyDarkMago
Dragon KnightgpK~
Dark SeerILICH-
RingmasterSave-
Ancient ApparitionElmisho
SilencerKataomi
JakiroMoOz
Game 2prediction correct29:8
BETBOOM TEAM 73%M80 27%
The model gave 73% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 32:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinPure~
AlchemistK1
BeastmasterMieRo
BristlebackILICH-
PangoliergpK~
TinyDarkMago
TinkerKataomi
Shadow DemonElmisho
BatriderSave-
SilencerMoOz
Game 3prediction correct30:11
BETBOOM TEAM 75%M80 25%
The model gave 75% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 28:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinPure~
GyrocopterK1
TinygpK~
PangolierDarkMago
BristlebackMieRo
TidehunterILICH-
MuertaSave-
WeaverElmisho
PhoenixKataomi
Night StalkerMoOz
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 90%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3