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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 30 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 27 games
70%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 25 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
83%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 23 games
65%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 21 game
67%
Tusk
Tusk
9Class · 21 game
57%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 32 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 26 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 23 games
65%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 19 games
47%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
22%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 18 games
39%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
500 picks · 684 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
437 picks · 706 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
426 picks · 413 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
413 picks · 325 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
375 picks · 876 bans
59%
Magnus
Magnus
375 picks · 957 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
372 picks · 429 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 505 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength61% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:26
PARIVISION 83%One Move 17%
The model gave 83% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 48:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSatanic
51% · 106 games56% · 189 games
BristlebackWoE
Bristleback
Monkey King
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
49% · 129 games48% · 215 games
Ember SpiritDifference
Ember Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaDM
51% · 99 games48% · 138 games
BrewmasterChodΣX
Brewmaster
Tiny
Tiny9Class
46% · 273 games55% · 66 games
Keeper of the LightRein
Keeper of the Light
Silencer
SilencerDukalis
48% · 22 games47% · 21 game
Ancient Apparitionnot me
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct26:19
PARIVISION 84%One Move 16%
The model gave 84% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 35:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
51% · 285 games48% · 297 games
Dragon KnightWoE
Dragon Knight
Monkey King
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
58% · 205 games47% · 95 games
Dark SeerChodΣX
Dark Seer
Bristleback
BristlebackDM
48% · 242 games43% · 171 game
Ember SpiritDifference
Ember Spirit
Tinker
Tinker9Class
58% · 51 game45% · 352 games
Batridernot me
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorDukalis
54% · 152 games51% · 20 games
SilencerRein
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 95%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2