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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 30 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 27 games
78%
Tusk
Tusk
Miposhka · 26 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 23 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 22 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
52%

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 26 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 23 games
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Mac · 23 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 23 games
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 20 games
70%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 20 games
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 17 games
65%
Doom
Doomsignature
Fbz · 16 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
497 picks · 684 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
439 picks · 706 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
428 picks · 414 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
412 picks · 327 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
376 picks · 878 bans
59%
Magnus
Magnus
376 picks · 956 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
372 picks · 431 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 505 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total92% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:29
Team Spirit 77%BOOM Esports 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:03:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzYatoro
52% · 30 games50% · 132 games
LeshracArmel
Leshrac
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
45% · 206 games55% · 447 games
TinyJaCkky
Tiny
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLarl
49% · 289 games47% · 118 games
TidehunterJabz
Tidehunter
Muerta
Muertarue
49% · 202 games45% · 52 games
TinkerJaunuel
Tinker
Jakiro
JakiroMiposhka
50% · 147 games57% · 125 games
MiranaTims
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct22:12
Team Spirit 79%BOOM Esports 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYatoro
50% · 306 games53% · 333 games
Dragon KnightJaCkky
Dragon Knight
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCollapse
40% · 182 games53% · 49 games
Death ProphetArmel
Death Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
56% · 210 games59% · 173 games
Sand KingJabz
Sand King
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightrue
45% · 65 games49% · 246 games
MuertaTims
Muerta
Jakiro
JakiroMiposhka
48% · 172 games47% · 134 games
Elder TitanJaunuel
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 92%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2