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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 40 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 36 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Saksa · 31 game
58%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 29 games
86%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nightfall · 27 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 27 games
63%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 35 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 26 games
65%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 24 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 21 game
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 20 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 20 games
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ws · 20 games
65%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 20 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
497 picks · 688 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
446 picks · 709 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
429 picks · 417 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
417 picks · 328 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
380 picks · 885 bans
59%
Magnus
Magnus
380 picks · 961 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
379 picks · 433 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 510 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total66% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:7
Tundra Esports 61%Talon Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusCrystallis
61% · 154 games40% · 113 games
SvenNatsumi
Sven
Doom
Doom33
54% · 194 games43% · 182 games
Centaur WarrunnerWs
Centaur Warrunner
Monkey King
Monkey Kingbzm
56% · 141 game52% · 154 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Silencer
SilencerFly
44% · 27 games47% · 195 games
MuertaJhocam
Muerta
Windranger
WindrangerSaksa
49% · 136 games56% · 8 games
Ancient ApparitionKuku
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed11:30
Tundra Esports 59%Talon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 28:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
50% · 168 games47% · 146 games
Phantom AssassinNatsumi
Phantom Assassin
Puck
Puckbzm
49% · 103 games50% · 97 games
TidehunterWs
Tidehunter
Magnus
MagnusCrystallis
54% · 192 games47% · 129 games
EarthshakerMikoto
Earthshaker
Undying
UndyingFly
45% · 22 games51% · 59 games
Shadow ShamanJhocam
Shadow Shaman
Alchemist
AlchemistSaksa
54% · 39 games50% · 93 games
WarlockKuku
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct36:16
Tundra Esports 61%Talon Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterbzm
52% · 265 games55% · 166 games
Monkey KingMikoto
Monkey King
Ursa
UrsaCrystallis
53% · 130 games50% · 143 games
Troll WarlordNatsumi
Troll Warlord
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
51% · 164 games49% · 125 games
TidehunterWs
Tidehunter
Tinker
TinkerFly
47% · 17 games45% · 242 games
MuertaJhocam
Muerta
Tiny
TinySaksa
49% · 325 games46% · 225 games
Crystal MaidenKuku
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 66%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3